Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 79874.717451 84346.998337 88818.669568 93621.978296 98632.235788 103700.963360 109213.150499
2025-01-05 72487.241470 79331.920077 86368.442570 94132.644639 102449.147532 111079.675304 120702.768843
2025-01-12 66873.588547 75300.829123 84156.725183 94135.878846 105046.361178 116591.282042 129709.497496
2025-01-19 62399.953125 71976.110101 82227.233498 93982.725298 107054.977371 121109.572473 137326.474950
2025-01-26 60045.444304 70699.239764 82284.695480 95768.081535 110975.918821 127544.485189 146905.789706
2025-02-02 58069.628568 69649.485137 82420.664730 97480.750640 114681.241514 133639.983203 156040.779712
2025-02-09 55802.374062 68101.762965 81846.324524 98253.425679 117210.554801 138329.817773 163536.798592
2025-02-16 53235.808891 66059.819712 80572.159694 98097.978213 118570.373120 141607.759766 169365.212806
2025-02-23 51304.925746 64655.143082 79939.963595 98596.864849 120609.804690 145608.260492 175987.875109
2025-03-02 49304.866332 63069.799110 79007.345413 98661.208988 122073.025108 148891.952045 181749.242436
2025-03-09 48089.263457 62362.948512 79059.985037 99843.111410 124815.154901 153646.192842 189226.792180
2025-03-16 46016.948447 60528.092958 77683.773010 99243.254859 125378.480046 155794.232104 193609.234993
2025-03-23 45093.395773 60097.643593 78010.768579 100721.175421 128475.587690 161011.620553 201735.495918
2025-03-30 43927.453857 59321.763385 77881.750061 101619.857986 130864.774638 165395.981447 208904.733217
2025-04-06 42434.593193 58077.019035 77123.911447 101700.881149 132224.395372 168525.293201 214566.474410
2025-04-13 40925.804081 56756.063784 76220.556423 101554.704590 133267.200387 171246.656130 219725.718052
2025-04-20 40468.651492 56763.123282 76966.836726 103458.463079 136842.927739 177062.736604 228680.105668
2025-04-27 40007.830130 56740.824213 77657.700798 105281.629355 140318.887328 182771.507183 237538.009270
2025-05-04 39129.169642 56136.965192 77577.615677 106103.844810 142527.573004 186919.731500 244493.921265
2025-05-11 37866.218488 54982.891341 76751.725919 105938.511020 143463.911961 189476.617850 249480.504325
2025-05-18 36963.353052 54279.696964 76484.282170 106469.247388 145268.339109 193109.765551 255814.257262
2025-05-25 35911.980887 53342.718340 75881.071676 106537.697760 146462.260074 195968.761157 261184.528893
2025-06-01 35394.259856 53113.657922 76196.029744 107794.897754 149181.857306 200756.799004 269000.507719